Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
